Who knew there is so much in common between the rare successes in mega-projects and innovation?

Photo: The Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles, designed by Frank Gehry

Bent Flyvbjerg studies spectacular mega-project flameouts. I study (often) spectacular innovation mis-steps. Who knew the process that produces both has so much in common? Who knew that the path to success is knowable? And that we can learn from the best outliers how to do better. Some notes from our Friday Fireside Chat last week.

Why do so many big things begun with good intentions go so wrong?

In his recent HBR article, “Make Megaprojects More Modular,” Bent argues that big-bet, bespoke projects that are custom-designed almost always fail — in other words, that failure is the norm and success is unusual. There are, however, some fascinating exceptions such as the Madrid Metro and Tesla’s Giga Nevada plant. In contrast, by setting out on a huge, unknown journey with lots of up-front funding, many projects unwittingly truncate learning and create the opportunity for things to go terribly wrong. I see the same pattern in ambitious innovation programs — all the funding up-front, no time to learn and a commitment to making something happen that ultimately will not get supported by the marketplace.