Boggled by radically increased uncertainty? You are not alone
January 2025 Monthly Wrap Up
January is now in the rear-view mirror (gasp) and a new administration is in office in the United States. 45 executive orders and a massively disruptive freeze in federal spending, not to mention, a potential trade war with former allies and a potential TikTok ban has a lot of business leaders wondering whether any efforts at strategic planning are worthwhile.
Well, the five-year strategic forecasts of yore are probably not particularly useful. At the same time, having no point of view about the future and simply reacting to the headlines is not likely to be helpful, either.
As I mention in a recent Thought Spark article, there are proactive ways of dealing with what seems like a more unpredictable world than ever. This suggests the need for creating uncertainty capabilities, namely;
1. Building organizations that can rapidly reconfigure themselves as assumptions change.
2. Developing early warning systems for non-obvious threats and opportunities.
3. Creating portfolios of strategic options rather than rigid plans.
4. Fostering cultures that see uncertainty as a source of opportunity rather than threat by adopting an entrepreneurial mindset.
The companies that will win in this environment won’t be those that correctly predict the future — they’ll be those that build the capability to adapt to whatever future emerges. Fast learning, great teamwork, effectively managing intelligent failures and absorbing uncertainty for your people will all be skills effective organizations will build.
Events — In Case You Missed It
At Columbia, we kicked off the teaching year with a great custom executive education program for the Development Bank of Japan. I always appreciate connecting with practitioners who are in the thick of strategic challenges, and our participants say they appreciate the time away from their day-to-day to sort through those challenges.
I began hosting regular Friday Fireside Chats live during the early days of the pandemic as a way to create connections between my audience and authors, entrepreneurs, and leaders during a time when a lot of us were stuck in one place. The conversations were recorded live and then reposted to YouTube and other channels. Now that we’ve moved on from those pandemic days, I’ve decided to change the format to be live-to-tape so that we have a little more flexibility about editing and the release. It’s all going to go under the Rita McGrath Media brand, as Thought Sparks. Stay tuned for the release of conversations with Terence Mauri of MIT, Anupam B Jena of Harvard Medical School, Stephan Meier of Columbia and Dean Carignan and JoAnn Garbin of Microsoft. Stay tuned for the release of these conversations on my Thought Sparks podcast — on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts.
In the News
TikTok’s future in the United States remains unclear. I spoke with Kat Tenbarge at NBC about the early leanings of the Supreme Court. Also of note are the knock-on effects that small businesses could face, who otherwise rely on TikTok and in-app features like TikTok Shop as a stream of revenue. a larger ban on small businesses. (I even took to the app itself to discuss it!)
If you’d like a refresher on some of the classics of management theory, I have been featured in a series by Business.com. Check out these primers on Contingent Management Theory, as well as the management theories of Peter Drucker, Joseph Juran, and Stephen Covey.
Thought Sparks
Here are five business trends that I’m watching as we bear down on the uncertainty that 2025 is sure to bring.
The “retail apocalypse” has come for Party City after falling into the trap of emphasizing financial engineering rather than business reinvention. In contrast, Build-A-Bear Workshop pulled off a remarkable strategic transformation, led by CEO Sharon Price John.
It’s not just you — disruption really has increased by 200% in the last 5 years. Here’s how the Reinvention Summit, running April 29–30, will equip leaders with the tools and strategies to navigate this.
Tools — Valize Advisory
About that disruption and uncertainty mentioned above — is your organization strategically equipped to handle this kind of change? Over at Valize, we’ve recently reinvigorated our Advisory offerings to help navigate this kind of constant uncertainty. Between Early Warnings Systems that set up the infrastructure to help you see around corners, and Scenario Exploration Labs that foster complex problem-solving, there’s a solution for you. Get in touch with our Advisory team to learn more.
Upcoming Events
If you’re looking to get back in the classroom, I’ll be teaching two sessions of Leading Strategic Growth and Change from March 17–21 and June 23–27 at Columbia Business School. Leaders will gain the skills to drive real organizational transformation amid the uncertainty that 2025 is sure to bring — be sure to save your spot in the course!
From April 29–30, I’ll be in Dublin, Ireland for the Reinvention Summit. I’m giving a keynote and will be joined by Aidan McCullen, Nadya Zhexembayeva, Alex Osterwalder, Seth Godin, and other leaders in innovation and strategy. We’ll have keynotes, hands-on workshops, 1:1 networking opportunities, and more. Early bird tickets are available now — I hope to see you there!
